The WE the secretary of defense will probably meet his Chinese counterpart. from Brazil the president-elect returns from the COP. Of them EU meetings will be monitored.
Meanwhile, malaysian politics will remain very uncertain, the incumbent president won the presidential elections in Kazakhstanpressure is mounting for a new process of constitutional rewriting in Chileand a public sector strike is planned in South Africa.
Chart of the week
Citizens around the world perceive significant conflict between groups supporting different political parties. This sentiment is more prevalent in democracies where politics have been particularly turbulent in recent years, including South Korea, the United States, Israel and France. Other large European countries such as Spain, Germany and the UK also show relatively high levels of perceived polarization between parties, while this is somewhat lower – although still substantial – in Australia, Sweden and Japan. More importantly, these perceptions have worsened over the past two years in some countries, such as the Netherlands, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany and Spain. In a difficult economic context in many countries, widespread political polarization is fertile ground for social discontent and more radical politics.
What to watch
The US and Chinese defense secretaries are expected to meet this week on the sidelines of the ASEAN Plus defense ministers meeting in Cambodia. Washington and Beijing have not held a high-level military exchange since Beijing suspended regular dialogue in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August, but last week’s meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping marked a modest thaw in relations.
Lula will be back this week from his trip to COP 27 and Portugal and is expected to focus on approving the 2023 finance law. Vice President-elect and Transitional Government Coordinator Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) presented a draft to Congress leaders on November 16 that includes a waiver of the official spending cap to cover the cost of an expanded program of cash transfers to the poor. and allocating 6.5% of extraordinary revenues, such as those from new Petrobras and other auctions, to investments. The proposal, if accepted, would result in additional spending of BRL 198 billion ($36 billion) beyond what was forecast in the annual budget bill sent to Congress last August. On another front, Lula is expected to appoint members of his sensitive defense transition team amid continued roadblocks and protest camps outside army headquarters by Bolsonaro supporters calling for military intervention .
Two meetings of the Council of the EU (where member state governments meet) will be closely watched this week. At their November 24 meeting, energy ministers will try again to move forward ongoing talks on petrol price caps. However, an agreement on a tangible cap remains unlikely. On November 25, trade ministers will meet amid growing concerns of late over tensions in trade relations with the United States. While an outright trade war is unlikely at this time, the way forward will depend on Washington’s willingness and ability to engage on an equal footing.
on the horizon
Anwar Ibrahim’s Alliance of Hope (PH) and former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s National Alliance (PN) are battling to form a majority coalition to form the next government. Regardless of the winner, Malaysian politics will have substantial near-term uncertainties that make any major policy changes unlikely. The resounding defeat inflicted on the United Malayan National Organization (UMNO) increases political fragmentation and makes major reform of affirmative action policies unlikely, while possibly increasing race-based politics.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida must try to deal with the fallout from the November 20 resignation of a third minister last month. The immediate problem is the impact on the already tight legislative timetable: if opposition parties demand that Kishida explain the ministerial rotation in the Diet, it could delay or derail the passage of legislation before the end of the current session. of the Diet on December 10. Kishida may also be considering a cabinet reshuffle in the coming weeks, in a bid to reset his administration’s political fortunes.
As expected, incumbent President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was re-elected for a second term in the November 20 presidential elections.. According to preliminary results, Tokayev received 81.3% of the vote, leaving his closest opponent Zhiguli Dairabaev with only 3.4%. While Tokayev is expected to dominate the country’s political scene until at least 2029, simmering public discontent over socio-economic issues and limited political liberalization will remain a lingering threat to domestic stability. In foreign policy, Tokayev will continue to take a multi-pronged approach, but the balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the many implications that flow from it.
The EU-brokered meeting between Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti is taking place in Brussels today, 21 November. It is another attempt to defuse bilateral tensions, which were stoked by Pristina’s new license plate requirements passed earlier this month. On November 22, the Kosovo police intend to start imposing fines on all vehicle owners who have not replaced Serbian license plates with Kosovo ones. The move could cause even greater tensions on the ground, although EU and NATO police forces stationed in northern Kosovo are expected to prevent any large-scale clashes.
Pressure is mounting to reach an agreement on a new constitutional rewrite process 11 weeks after voters rejected the initial draft of a new constitution. An unofficial end of November deadline is looming. The main stumbling block is the size of the new entity that will draft the text, with the opposition seeking a deliberative body of 50 members and the government coalition in favor of a maximum of 99 members. While on paper it might seem that a compromise somewhere between those two numbers would be the obvious answer, that would require establishing new electoral rules, while the 50-seat model proposed by the opposition coalition Chile Vamos (CV) would be based on constituencies and Senate rules – which are disadvantageous for the left. Meetings resume tomorrow, November 22. If an agreement cannot be reached, a plan B being mooted could see the creation of a body appointed directly by Congress, although this could be controversial.
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
On November 22, the three main trade union federations will organize a one-day strike to demand a wage increase in the public sector. The federations Cosatu, Saftu and Fedusa are demanding wage increases of around 10%, but the government is sticking to its offer of 3%, which is the assumption underlying the medium-term fiscal policy statement (MTBPS). ) of October.
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